And so the next Bitcoin Crash Begins…

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UPDATE on Dec 7th, 2013: Looks like the crash started Dec 5th, so I was off by a few days. The lowest I’ve seen has been $666, so it’s still a little off my prediction of $600. There’s still some major selling activity out there and we may still see $600. Bitcoin crashes historically have taken between a few days to 6 months (max) to recover. If you’re speculating on this currency I hope you’re only betting (because it is gambling) money that you can lose and are taking a 18 month view. I’m also morally oblidged to suggest that you actually spend some of your bitcoin on buying stuff to help get the currency off the ground as an actual currency and not just a vehicle for speculation.

Original post from Dec 1st:

Volume has just spiked and the price is about to break below $1000 for Bitcoin on Mt Gox. This is going to be a big crash down to around $600 bucks and it’s going to be fast. It’s already down to $750 on BTC-e but that is generally much cheaper than MtGox due to higher risk (based in Bulgaria & anonymous owner). If you’ve been watching BTC price for a while you’ll recognize this as just another profit taking crash after a big runup. They’ve happened over and over since Bitcoin broke through one buck per coin.

Then, as has happened before, it will climb back up to $1200 and beyond, probably up to somewhere between $4K and $10K before the next big crash. If you do want to speculate on crypto currencies, wait a day or three and you’re about to get a great deal on Bitcoin. 

If you’re new to Bitcoin, you’re going to need a strong stomach to ride this one out. Enjoy!

PS: I will add one Caveat. There is a fundamental issue that may be causing some paranoia and that’s the block size approaching 1 MB and miner software incompatibility with block sizes over 1 meg. But it’s something we’ve seen before.

21 thoughts on “And so the next Bitcoin Crash Begins…

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  3. Are you standing by your prediction of a ‘big crash’ to ‘around $600’? There was no one hour period on the weekend where the median price on mtgox was below $900 and it’s now back over $1,100. Are you still standing by your $600 figure or would it be fair to say that you jumped the gun and that this was just a reflection of the current volatility of Bitcoin.

  4. If the mining gets more difficult/disrupted as you mention that would slow the supply of bitcoin, which should be bullish for pricing, all else equal. Not following your comment about it being bearish for bitcoin price.

    • Yes that’s correct. Bitcoin has built in deflation. What this means is that money supply is controlled by the algorithm and it will gradually dry up until there are 21 Million BTC in existence and then there will be no more. If demand continues to increase after this point the value of coins will continue to increase. This is contrary to every other currency out there where the supply is constantly increased as each central bank prints more of their currency. So the effect of this is that Bitcoin is an excellent store of value while traditional currency is not. But on the other hand, you never want to borrow money where your debt is denominated in Bitcoin (due to guaranteed deflation), while traditional currencies are good for debt due to their inflation.

    • If you know anything about the supposed “leak”, then you’ll know it’s nearly useless. That page is dynamically generated, not reading from a database. It would take beyond the heat death of the universe to actually compute that many keys.

  5. This is all a part of the process.

    Yes, Im sitting on a few pending BTC on Coinbase.

    Yes, I lost a few hundred bucks (and counting) today.

    At this point tho, the Chinese are going to wake up to these insanely low prices and go on a spending spree. The stolen BTC will end up back in the marketplace legitimately. These prices will soar, and quickly. Its all about riding it out.

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